Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
