Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
