War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".